Recent proposals by President-elect Donald Trump to expand the child tax credit have reignited discussions about this crucial policy tool and its impacts on family well-being. While details remain scarce — and critics say the plan can be costly — Trump has expressed interest in “a significant expansion of the child tax credit,” with his running mate J.D. Vance suggesting an increase to $5,000 per child.
The child tax credit currently provides up to $2,000 per qualifying child under 17 years of age for the 2024 tax year, with a refundable portion of $1,700 available to families whose tax liabilities are lower than the credit amount. However, this structure is set against a backdrop of potential changes, as the tax credit is scheduled to revert to $1,000 per child in 2025 unless Congress acts to extend or expand it.
The policy is often viewed with an economics lens, as a way to help struggling families with the ever-increasing cost of living. But, in a recent editorial that appeared in JAMA Pediatrics, a pair of medical experts called the COVID-19 pandemic-era child tax credit expansion in 2021, “one of the most successful antipoverty initiatives,” that verifiably improved health for children and their caregivers.
Reporting tips
As health journalists examine these proposals to expand the tax policy, it’s essential to consider the substantial body of evidence demonstrating the positive health outcomes of the tax policy. These benefits stem from the increased financial resources available to families, which can be directed toward health care, nutrition, and overall quality of life. Here are some reporting tips:
- Cross-check claims about the proposed expansion with official sources and policy documents. Avoid relying solely on statements from political figures or interest groups (of which there are many).
- Compare the proposed changes to the current child tax credit structure and historical data. For example, the current maximum credit is $2,000 per qualifying child, with a refundable portion of $1,700 for the 2024 tax year — but be on the lookout for any possible changes.
- Investigate how the proposed expansion might affect different income groups, family sizes and demographics. Expert opinions, economic models and peer-reviewed studies can all be used to illustrate potential outcomes as well as personal narratives from affected families.
- Clarify the steps required for the proposal to become law and any potential obstacles it may face in Congress. Stick to confirmed facts and avoid spreading unsubstantiated rumors or predictions about the proposal’s outcome.
- If the expansion is enacted, track its rollout and report on any challenges or successes in its implementation. The story’s not over once a decision is made.
Child health outcomes
Research consistently shows that the child tax credit leads to improvements in various health outcomes for both children and their caregivers. Here’s a closer look at the data:
Improved nutrition
Many studies have found that expansions in the child tax credit are associated with better nutritional outcomes for children. One study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) found that the 2021 temporary expansion of the tax credit was linked to a 26% reduction in food insufficiency among households with children. This improvement in food security can have long-lasting effects on child health and development.
Reduced poverty and associated health risks
The child tax credit has been shown to be a powerful tool for reducing child poverty. Research from Columbia University’s Center on Poverty and Social Policy found that the expanded tax credit in 2021 reduced monthly child poverty rates by nearly 30% — keeping an estimated 3.7 million children out of poverty by the end of December 2021. We know that poverty is a well-established social determinant of health and is associated with numerous adverse outcomes.
Better access to health care
Increased financial resources from the child tax credit can improve families’ ability to access health care services. A study in the journal Health Affairs found that expansions in the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and child tax credit were associated with increased health insurance coverage and improved access to care for children.
Caregiver health outcomes
Reduced stress and improved mental health
The same Health Affairs study also examined the mental health effects of monthly child tax credit payments over time and found anxiety and depression reportedly lessened when families began receiving payments.
“The mental health benefits of the child tax credit expansion were largest among adults of Black, Hispanic, and other (non-Asian) racial and ethnic backgrounds,” the researchers noted. Another study published in JAMA Pediatrics found that the expanded tax credit in 2021 was associated with reduced parental stress and improved mental health among caregivers. This reduction in stress can have cascading positive effects on family dynamics and child well-being.
Improved maternal health
Expansions in the EITC and child tax credit have also been associated with improvements in maternal health, including reductions in low birth weight and increases in prenatal care. A study published in the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy found that higher earned income tax credit payments were linked to improved self-reported health among mothers, as well as a decrease in poor mental health days reported by eligible women with two children compared to those with only one child. Also, research highlighted by the CDC Foundation indicates that mothers receiving larger EITC benefits experienced greater improvements in their own health, including reduced high blood pressure and inflammation, which are critical factors for maternal health.
As journalists consider the potential impacts of Trump’s proposed child tax credit expansion, it’s crucial to view these policies through a public health lens. While the exact details of the proposal are not yet known, any expansion of the tax credit has the potential to yield significant public health benefits.
However, the structure and implementation of the credit are critical. The 2021 expansion, which made the credit fully refundable and provided monthly payments, was particularly effective in reaching low-income families and providing immediate relief, but there’s conflicting evidence on what percentage of eligible families actually received the credit.
It remains to be seen whether Trump’s proposal will include similar provisions. And, the potential impact on other social programs should be considered. If the expansion of the tax credit comes at the expense of other crucial safety net programs, the overall public health impact may be diminished.
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